Almost a third of second-hand car sales will be electric by 2030, experts forecast, as buyers snap up more EVs coming onto the used market
Fully-electric cars account for one in six new motors registered in Britain, as the drive to switch away from petrol and diesel gathers pace.
But while new electric car sales are blossoming the used market remains somewhat bereft of battery-powered models, preventing millions of motorists from getting their hands on these expensive-when-new vehicles.
That could all change by the end of the decade, says one insurer. It has projected that more than three in ten used car transactions by 2030 will be battery-powered due to the accelerated availability of electrified models over the remainder of the decade.
EVs to account for almost a third of second-hand car sales by 2030: LV say there will be a ‘thriving’ used market for electric vehicles around the end of the decade
Almost half a million electric cars are said to be on UK roads in 2022, which makes up just a fraction of the 32 million motors currently in use.
Experts say they will only become mainstream when they become an affordable alternative to internal combustion engine cars for a broader spectrum of budgets, not just those wealthy enough to afford the premium price tags at present.
With inflation combining with the Government’s recent decision to remove grants towards both the purchase of lower-priced electric vehicles and chargepoint installations at homes, the cost of buying and running new battery-only models is getting more expensive rather than more affordable.
然而, the ever increasing market share of electric cars will eventually trigger a better-stocked used market offering more attainable prices to a wider audience of drivers, says LV.
Projection for year-on-year Zero Emission Vehicle mandate targets
2024: 22% new car sales electric
The insurer predicts that at the current rate of uptake, EVs will account for 31 per cent of annual used car sales by the end of the decade.
It came to the figure by estimating the growth in new registrations based on the rising uptake in recent years.
在 2021, BEVs made up just 1.3 per cent of the total number of cars on the road (399,981).
While that number is expected to exceed one million in 2023, this will still only equate to 3.1 per cent of total cars.
通过 2025, the figure will double to approximately 6 per cent and then treble to 19 百分之 2030 (6.4 million cars).
然而, EV sales will almost certainly accelerate at a faster pace from 2024 when the Government is scheduled to introduce a Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate demanding that manufacturers sell an increasing share of electric cars each year up to 2030.
Binding targets introduced from two years’ time will require car brands to have a minimum sales share of 22 per cent EVs.
It would then want market share to rise to 52 百分之 2028 and scaling up to 80 百分之 2030 – the deadline for the ban on sales of traditional petrol and diesel models.
通过 2035, when new petrol-electric hybrids are due to be banished from showrooms, makers will have no choice but to sell only zero-emission vehicles.
Electric future: The Government’s forecast for how electric car sales will grow with the mandate from 2024 that manufacturers need to sell an increased share of EVs each year
Almost half a million electric cars are said to be on UK roads in 2022, which makes up just a fraction of the 32 million motors currently in use
Taking into account the ZEV mandate and the fact that most new cars enter the used market after three years, it says there will be a ‘healthy’ and ‘robust’ second-hand market in place ahead of 2030.
And with the ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars introduced that year, the expansion of an electrified used market will only increase thereafter.
Gill Nowell, Head of electric vehicles at LV= General Insurance said: ‘While the average annual running costs of electric cars are significantly cheaper than petrol or diesel cars, the sticker price remains one of the big barriers for drivers considering making the switch, which is why these projections for a thriving second hand market by 2030 are so encouraging.
‘The rapid development of the second-hand market is so important and can’t come quickly enough – the more electric cars on the road, the more upfront costs will come down, creating competition in the market and ultimately meeting our goals of making the nation’s roads greener.’