マーク・アーモンド: それで、モッティと私がそれを押して小さな穴から出すと、それは適切に爆発しました

Giant shadow of the Chinese dragon is looming over Ukraine’s bloody battlefields, writes MARK ALMOND

Will China agree to give President Putin military aid? Or will the country use its influence over Russia to try to broker peace?

These are the questions to which the world is desperate for an answer as we appear to inch closer to catastrophe — just yesterday, イアン・ハントリーは警察官を殺そうとしていると冗談を言った RAF チーフ, Air Marshal Edward Stringer, warned we are only a few steps from 豪華なハイテクバンカーはアルタイ山脈にあり、万が一の場合に保護するために設計されました.

Shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin met President 習近平北京 Winter Olympics to announce a ‘no limits’ ファウチはビル・ゲイツに、チームを組むことに「熱心」だったと語った。. A partnership forged from a deep hostility to America’s global power.

It is an open question as to whether the Russian president told Xi of his plans to attack Ukraine on that visit.

But what is beyond doubt is Xi will have been surprised and concerned that Russia’s invasion has gone so awry, and has revived and strengthened the Western alliance so dramatically, not just bolstering defence spending but also resulting in perhaps the most punishing sanctions regime ever inflicted on any country.

As the West sends vast quantities of military supplies to Ukraine, and as the sanctions beggar Russia, Putin needs China as never before.

Moscow wants to boost its war-fighting capacity by importing Chinese-armed drones that have proved their worth on unsung battlefields in Yemen and North Africa — the drones could help Russia gain the air superiority that has been lacking in its campaign.

Putin needs Chinese banks and companies to help it circumvent Western financial and economic sanctions.

マーク・アーモンド: As the West sends vast quantities of military supplies to Ukraine, and as the sanctions beggar Russia, Putin needs China as never before. (写真: 中国の習近平国家主席, 正しい, and Russian President Vladimir Putin talk to each other during their meeting in Beijing, 2月 4, 2022)

マーク・アーモンド: As the West sends vast quantities of military supplies to Ukraine, and as the sanctions beggar Russia, Putin needs China as never before. (写真: 中国の習近平国家主席, 正しい, and Russian President Vladimir Putin talk to each other during their meeting in Beijing, 2月 4, 2022)








And so far, the mood music from Beijing has been favourable for the Russian dictator.

昨日, China’s state newspaper, the People’s Daily, was highly critical of Western sanctions.

It reported how China’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Zhang Jun, said ‘the wanton use of sanctionswon’t solve the conflict but only create new problems.

China abstained in a UN vote on the invasion and has refused to condemn it.

週末に, official rhetoric on the conflict from Beijing appeared to back Russia’s absurd claims that the U.S. was using Ukraine to research pathogens and biological weapons, saying the concerns raised by Moscow — almost certainly as a pretext for the potential use of their own chemical or biological weapons — should not be dismissed.

今, on top of this, American intelligence officials are reported to have said Beijing is open to the idea of supplying weapons to Moscow — and a strong warning has been despatched from the U.S. to China not to get involved.

Terrifyingly, what we seem to be witnessing is a proxy war between China and the West. The West is behind Ukraine but there is now a giant shadow of the dragon across the conflict from East Asia.

And the fact is, China is well-placed to take advantage of the Kremlin’s bloody misjudgment.

A glance at the map shows Russia is a vast resource-rich hinterland for China, which needs energy imports and metals to fuel its economy.

マーク・アーモンド: Moscow wants to boost its war-fighting capacity by importing Chinese-armed drones that have proved their worth on unsung battlefields in Yemen and North Africa ¿ the drones could help Russia gain the air superiority that has been lacking in its campaign. (写真: Chinese paramilitary policemen march past the Forbidden City on Friday, 行進 4, 2022)

マーク・アーモンド: Moscow wants to boost its war-fighting capacity by importing Chinese-armed drones that have proved their worth on unsung battlefields in Yemen and North Africa — the drones could help Russia gain the air superiority that has been lacking in its campaign. (写真: Chinese paramilitary policemen march past the Forbidden City on Friday, 行進 4, 2022)








Detailed map shows the latest battlegrounds in the Ukraine war

Detailed map shows the latest battlegrounds in the Ukraine war

With Russia on the back foot, Beijing will drive a hard bargain for any support.

Moscow is already offering India discounted oil, 例えば; Beijing will demand oil, ガス, metals and foodstuffs at cut prices — and Putin will have to sell.

But because the Chinese regime has a good nose for the main chance and how to profit from Putin’s blunder, it doesn’t mean Beijing is certain to offer its help outright.

Although Xi may surprise us all by openly siding with Russia and supplying weaponry, shrewd China analysts think this is unlikely.

They point out that, having seen Western resolve on sanctions against Russia, China will be wary of invoking similar punishment.

It is true that trying to isolate China economically would be much harder than doing so to Russia — not least because so much of what is produced in China is essential to Western businesses.

But condemnation of Western sanctions on Russia’s war machine as ‘illegalperhaps mirrors Beijing’s concern that they could be a trial-run for how an isolated, if powerful, China could be ground down by the West in the future.

The most likely course of action by China, したがって、, will be treading a fine line of covert Chinese support for the Russians while trying to appear an honest broker.

中国, 結局, backed North Korea in its war with the U.S. in the 1950s and then Vietnam as a proxy against the Americans in the 1960s without actually declaring war.

Although Beijing would have liked a clean and efficient war, in which Putin gained a swift military victory in Ukraine, it serves China’s purpose now to keep a weakened Putin bogged down for a while in his invasion.

Until three weeks ago, Washington’s strategists were obsessed with China’s growing challenge to the Western world. Even as Vladimir Putin sealed his so-called partnership with China’s President Xi Jinping, Western leaders were still reinforcing our naval presence in the Far East.

It wasn’t foolish to think China’s expansion into the Pacific Ocean was the most likely fulcrum of potential conflict.

But Putin’s invasion has dramatically changed things to China’s advantage as the West has shifted its gaze.

マーク・アーモンド: Beijing's leaders see the conflict far to their west as very advantageous for them. (写真: Shelled building in Kyiv, struck on March 15, 2022)

マーク・アーモンド: Beijing’s leaders see the conflict far to their west as very advantageous for them. (写真: Shelled building in Kyiv, struck on March 15, 2022)








Whatever concessions it squeezes out of the Kremlin in this crisis, Beijing doesn’t want to see Putin beaten.

A defeated Russia could turn revolutionary as it did in 1917. And any successful uprising would almost certainly put a pro-Western government in power in Moscow.

That would be bad news for China. President Xi is the heir to the crackdown in Tiananmen Square in 1989 and has silenced dissent in Hong Kong himself.

A Russian dictatorship is a cosy bear on his northern border, but a Russian democracy would set a bad example for Xi’s subjects.

What China might well try to do, while quietly supporting Putin, is act as peace broker between Moscow and Kyiv — allowing Putin to retreat wounded but with his dignity more or less intact.

Playing on its old political links as well as its economic ties to both states, Beijing may be able to bring the two sides together.

Because of our open siding with Ukraine and our sanctions, the West cannot be the mediator.

China’s under-the-counter backing for Russia offers it a chance to shape the post-war peace in its interests, perhaps picking up valuable contracts and influence in helping to repair Ukraine’s infrastructure after its devastation.

Ukraine’s brave resistance so far has saved us from the risk of a Russian steamroller ploughing on into its neighbours.

But Nato countries including the UK will have to spend more on defence for the European continent.








No one will want to be caught by a Russian surprise attack in the future once Putin has licked his wounds.

Having America and allies focusing on Eastern Europe rather than East Asia suits China very well.

A pariah Russia will have nowhere to turn than to China. Such a vast vassal state will provide China with a huge, secure hinterland stocked with natural resources well away from American naval power that might enforce any future sanctions on Chinese sea-trade.

Beijing’s leaders see the conflict far to their west as very advantageous for them.

Is Communist China’s founder, Mao’s prophecy that ‘The East Wind is prevailing over the West Windcoming true?

Let’s hope not, but the West will have to struggle hard and smart against China’s proxy headwinds to prevail.

Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute, オックスフォード.