More proof England's Covid outbreak has 'peaked'

一进一出 50 人 – 1.1百万 – were infected with Covid in England on any given day last week in third highest total EVERbut ONS suggests third wave has ‘likely peaked

  • Office for National Statistics random swabbing estimated 1.1million people had Covid at any point last week
  • This was the same as the week before when statisticians also estimated there were 1.1million infections
  • But the levelling off suggests a peak as fewer infected people are passing the virus on to others
  • England’s third Covid wave may have already peaked, more official data suggested today as a swathe of statistics now point to a slowing epidemic.

    国家统计局’ (我们) weekly surveillance report estimated 1.1million people were infected with the virus at any time in the week to October 30 — the equivalent of one in 50. This was approximately the same as the previous seven-day spell, bringing an end to nearly three months of rising cases which began in August.

    Experts say the levelling off suggests the latest wave of Covid triggered by the return of schoolchildren has ‘likelycome to a natural peak, due to a combination of vaccine immunity and previous infection.

    But the ONS data still suggests the outbreak is still as big as it was at the peak of the second wave in January and the weekly total is the third highest ever recorded, even though deaths are just a fraction of levels seen during the darkest days of the crisis.

    Covid cases were falling among under-16s and dipped slightly among 35 to 49-year-olds but remained static in all other age groups including the booster-eligible over-60s, according to the mass-testing survey.

    与此同时, Government advisers today said the R rate has fallen for the first time since millions of pupils returned to school in September. The UK Health Security Agency now estimates the rate stands at between 0.9 和 1.1 but caution that it reflects the situation three weeks ago, rather than now.

    It comes after separate data from the UK’s largest symptom-tracking study yesterday reported a fall in cases for the first time in weeks, in another sign cases may have peaked. Tim Spector教授, the epidemiologist behind the survey, said the country is probably over the ‘last great peak of Covidfor the year, but encouraged mask-wearing and social distancing to be safe.

    And Britain’s daily Covid cases fell again yesterday for the 11th time in 12 天, after a brief blip earlier this week. The Department of Health said there were 37,269 infections recorded, 下 6.5 per cent from last Thursday.

    The Office for National Statistics estimated that some 1.1million people in England had Covid at any point last week. This is the same as the previous seven-day spell, but the levelling off suggests the outbreak has peaked because fewer people infected with the virus are passing it on to others — either due to self-isolation or immunity from jabs or previous infection

    The Office for National Statistics estimated that some 1.1million people in England had Covid at any point last week. This is the same as the previous seven-day spell, but the levelling off suggests the outbreak has peaked because fewer people infected with the virus are passing it on to others — either due to self-isolation or immunity from jabs or previous infection

    The ONS estimated that cases are falling among under-16s, and there was a slight drop among those aged 35 至 49, but they remained static in all other age groups

    The ONS estimated that cases are falling among under-16s, and there was a slight drop among those aged 35 至 49, but they remained static in all other age groups

    Across England's regions a downturn in infections was suggested in the East of England, 西北, 东南, East Midlands and London. This is likely linked to dropping infections among younger age groups over half-term

    Across England’s regions a downturn in infections was suggested in the East of England, 西北, 东南, East Midlands and London. This is likely linked to dropping infections among younger age groups over half-term

    The experts behind the ZOE Covid Study — which is based on reports from around 750,000 weekly contributors and more than 40,000 swabs — calculated there were 88,592 daily symptomatic Covid cases across the UK, based on data from 42,359 positive PCR and lateral flow tests taken between October 16 和 30. Around a third of cases (26,928) are among double-jabbed Brits, 从 26,928 上个星期, 研究发现.

    The experts behind the ZOE Covid Study — which is based on reports from around 750,000 weekly contributors and more than 40,000 swabs — calculated there were 88,592 daily symptomatic Covid cases across the UK, based on data from 42,359 positive PCR and lateral flow tests taken between October 16 和 30. Around a third of cases (26,928) are among double-jabbed Brits, 从 26,928 上个星期, 研究发现.

    Map shows: The percentage change in case rates in authorities across in England during the week ending October 24
    Map shows: The percentage change in case rates in authorities across in England during the week ending October 31
    滑动我

    Covid infection rates fell in all but 10 per cent of areas in England during the half-term week, data from the UK Health and Security Agency’s weekly Flu and Covid Surveillance Report shows

    NHS staff WON’T be forced to have a compulsory Covid jab this winter despite fears of a spike in cases

    NHS workers won’t face being sacked if they don’t get vaccinated against Covid this winter, it was claimed yesterday despite fears of another wave over the coming months.

    Ministers are set to announce compulsory jabs for hundreds of thousands of frontline medics in the coming days, but the actual rule is not expected to be enforced until April.

    The policy is part of efforts to control rising infections, which will also soon include allowing the double-jabbed to book their third booster dose a month earlier than planned to speed up the roll-out.

    Officials have been deliberating over a ‘no jab, no jobmove for NHS staff for months, in a bid to protect the health service this winter. Ministers have already pressed ahead with the same controversial move for care home workers, who are required to have two doses from November 11 in order to keep their jobs.

    Department of Health bosses told MailOnline ‘no final decisionhad been made, with Health Secretary Sajid Javid rumoured to still have reservations about the policy — despite publicly admitting that he was ‘leaning towardsthe mandate.

    然而, a Whitehall insider close to the negotiations claimed the move was a ‘done dealand could be formally unveiled as soon as today.

    It comes after England’s deputy chief medical officer yesterday said Covid booster shots, flu jabs and ‘cautionare key to coping with the virus during the ‘problematicChristmas period. Professor Jonathan Van-Tam hinted further lockdowns could be avoided and the pandemic brought under control by spring if people act responsibly.

    广告

    Around one in 50 people in private households in England had Covid in the week to October 30, unchanged from the previous week, according to the latest ONS estimates.

    When modelling the level of Covid infections among different age ranges in England, the agency said rates have increased in the latest week for those from school year 12 变老 24 and for those aged 50 至 69.

    In another glimmer of hope, rates have decreased in secondary school pupils though the percentage of children testing positive remains high (7.5 百分).

    Dr Raghib Ali, an epidemiologist at Cambridge University, said the results were ‘broadly as expected’, bolstering claims that prevalence peaked in England in the final week of October.

    He added that it also confirms cases in schoolchildren were peaking before half-term, saying it offers more evidence that the fall was genuine and not just down to less testing as some experts had speculated.

    Professor Jim Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute at the University of Oxford, also claimed the data showed prevalence appears to have peaked. 他加了: ‘I would now expect all other things being equal for the prevalence to fall.

    ‘There are other encouraging results the prevalence in teens shows a trend downwards from very high levels. This age group had very alarming levels of infection and this was driving case numbers.

    ‘The combination of vaccine roll out to this age group and the high level of infection, will drive down the numbers of newly infected teens rapidly from this point.

    他加了: ‘There is no doubt that this Christmas will be transformationally different than last.

    Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease specialist at the University of East Anglia, said the results provide some ‘reassurance that Covid infections in England may have indeed peaked’.

    他加了: ‘The report supports what has been seen in the daily case reports which have been falling for a couple of weeks now.

    ‘Because this report presents prevalence and people often remain positive for more than a week after becoming infected it will always look like data here are falling more slowly than seen in daily case reports which are incidence data.

    然而, other scientists urged caution over the results.

    西蒙·克拉克博士, 雷丁大学一名细胞微生物学家, 说过: ‘It is too early to know if this will be the peak of the latest wave of infections or just a temporary week to week reduction.

    ‘The slightly lower numbers overall are likely due to a reduction in cases among children, which may be an impact of the autumn half term school holiday, and the rising numbers of vaccinated teenagers.

    The ZOE study estimated there were 88,592 daily symptomatic Covid cases across the UK every day in the week up to October 30.

    This was based on data from 42,359 positive PCR and lateral flow tests, and hundreds of thousands of users of the app. Around a third of cases (26,928) were among double-jabbed Brits.

    遍布英国, 一进一出 53 people were estimated to have symptomatic Covid, while the figure is higher in England (一进一出 52) and Wales (一进一出 42), while it was less in Scotland (一进一出 81).

    The researchers said there were not enough respondents in Northern Ireland to generate a reliable estimate.

    Within the UK, infection rates were highest in West Midlands (一进一出 45), 西南 (一进一出 45) and North East (一进一出 46).

    A drop in infection rates among children was the main driver of the downward tread, 研究人员说.

    一进一出 34 people aged 10 至 19 were infected last week, while the rate is one in 52 for children aged nine and under.

    Infections are levelling off in all other groups apart from those aged 55 至 75, which the experts said is a ’cause for concern— but rates are still below the national average in the group.

    Professor Spector said: ‘It’s great that we’re finally seeing cases start to come down, and hopefully we’re over the last great peak of Covid in 2021.

    ‘This is driven in large part by declining cases in children who have been on half term holidays and by high rates of previous infection, but we’re hopeful that the trend will continue.

    He warned that is is ‘still worrying that cases in the older, more vulnerable age group are increasingbut said the booster programme will likely bring cases down.

    Professor Spector said: ‘As the temperatures drop and winter comes we’re still seeing far too much Covid in the community leading to high long Covid and hospitalisation rates compared to other countries in Western Europe.

    ‘With high rates of other viral respiratory illnesses too (although no flu yet), there is no room for complacency.

    他加了: ‘While restrictions, masks and vaccine uptake in children are factors, it’s clear that there’s no single solution to bringing rates down permanently.

    ‘We’ve seen that a combination of population safety precautions and vaccines works best, and so the third booster vaccine, coupled with mask wearing and distancing in high risk areas, is our way out.

    与此同时, Professor Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the University of Nottingham, said the half-term break has likely reduced transmission among children and rates may rise as pupils return to classrooms.

    他说: ‘But one consequence of all this virus transmission in younger people is that they will become immune and as immunity builds transmission will slow.

    ‘Whilst I don’t expect massive increases in case numbers, I think case numbers over the next few months will still be lumpy as the virus continues to circulate in unvaccinated people and in those whose immunity has started to wane.

    ‘That’s why it’s so important for people to get vaccinated and, when invited, get their booster jab.

    评论被关闭.