'Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide': UN warns of US climate disaster

‘Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide’: Devastating UN report finds extreme flooding, deadly wildfires and heatwaves from climate change are already plaguing the US as the world is expected to warm by 2.7F by 2040

  • Scientists expect temperatures to rise by 1.5C above pre-industrial levels up to decade earlier than expected
  • It had been thought it would happen between 2030 和 2052 but it is now expected between now and 2040
  • Bombshell United Nations report comes as record heatwaves, wildfires and floods hit countries around world
  • The US is experiencing such events this year with more than 3,000 wildfires , over $8B in flood damages and more than 3,000 people killed in heatwaves
  • It is ‘unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, oceans and land,’ the report has warned
  • 报告: ‘Virtually certainheatwaves ‘have become more frequent and more intense across most land regions
  • A rise in sea levels approaching 6ft by the end of this century ‘cannot be ruled out’, the authors said
  • They also warned the Arctic is likely to be ‘practically sea ice-freein September at least once before 2050
  • But some experts say still hope cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases could stabilize rising temperatures
  • Scientists with the 联合国 have been sounding the alarm on humans fueling dangerous greenhouses gasses for the past 30 年份, 但在星期一, 234 experts issued the most devastating assessment yet that reveals the US is headed for disaster.

    Flooding, deadly fires and heat waves will not only become the norm but will intensify in a warming world, warns the 3,949-page assessment.

    Humans have already heated the planet by roughly 2 华氏度 (1.1C), since the 19th century, largely by burning coal, oil and gas for energy – with the US being on of the top producers.

    Scientists had expected temperatures to rise by 2.7F (1.5C) above pre-industrial levels between 2030 和 2052 but now believe it will happen between this year and 2040.

    The consequences are already ripping across the nation: This summer alone, blistering heat waves have killed more than 3,000 American and wildfires have cost at least $8 十亿, while flooding has caused nearly $75 billion in damages in the past 30 年份.

    Linda Mearns, a senior climate scientist at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research and co-author of the 报告, 在一份声明中说: ‘It’s just guaranteed that it’s going to get worse.

    ‘Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.

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    If temperatures continue to rise, there could be devastating effects here on Earth, including a dramatic loss of sea-life, an ice-free Arctic and more regular 'extreme' weather

    If temperatures continue to rise, there could be devastating effects here on Earth, including a dramatic loss of sea-life, an ice-free Arctic and more regular ‘extreme’ 天气

    Flooding, deadly fires and heat waves will not only become the norm but will intensify in a warming world, warns the 3,949-page assessment

    The 2.7F (1.5C) mark is considered to be the point where climate change becomes increasingly dangerous.

    的 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change committed countries to limiting warming to 2.7F (1.5C) but they have already risen by 2.2F (1.2C).

    UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the new report a ‘code red for humanity’.

    他警告: ‘The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk.

    The consequences are already ripping across the nation: This summer alone, blistering heat waves have killed more than 3,000 American and wildfires have cost at least $8 十亿, while flooding has caused nearly $75 billion in damages in the past 30 年份. Pictured are fires currently blazing in California

    The consequences are already ripping across the nation: This summer alone, blistering heat waves have killed more than 3,000 American and wildfires have cost at least $8 十亿, while flooding has caused nearly $75 billion in damages in the past 30 年份. Pictured are fires currently blazing in California

    These graphs show how human influence has warmed the climate at a rate unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 年份

    These graphs show how human influence has warmed the climate at a rate unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 年份

    The key findings of the report are:

    · Humans are very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers, decline in sea ice, warming oceans and rising sea levels

    · It is ‘virtually certainthat heatwaves ‘have become more frequent and more intense across most land regions

    · A rise in sea levels approaching 6 feet by the end of this century ‘cannot be ruled out

    · The Arctic is likely to be ‘practically sea ice-freein September at least once before 2050

    · Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher than they have been for three million years Some changes, such as sea level rises, will be ‘irreversiblefor hundreds to thousands of years

    安东尼·布林肯, US Secretary of State, 在一份声明中说: '今天, the United States joined nearly 200 IPCC member governments in approving the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report.

    ‘The report finds we are already edging closer to a 1.5 摄氏度 [2.7F] warmer world, and every day emissions rise the prospects for averting the worst impacts of climate change become dimmer. This is why it is essential that all countries – in particular the major economies –do their part during this critical decade of the 2020s to put the world on a trajectory to keep a 1.5 摄氏度 [2.7F] limit on warming within reach.

    ‘This is why the United States has committed to a 50-52 percent reduction in emissions from 2005 levels in 2030 and is marshaling the entire federal government to tackle the climate crisis. We cannot delay ambitious climate action any longer.

    The UN scientists modelled the changes in annual mean temperatures worldwide based on 2.7F (1.5C), 3.6F (2C) and 7.2F (4C) 全球暖化

    The UN scientists modelled the changes in annual mean temperatures worldwide based on 2.7F (1.5C), 3.6F (2C) and 7.2F (4C) 全球暖化

    The projected changes in extremes are larger in frequency and intensity with every additional increment of global warming

    The projected changes in extremes are larger in frequency and intensity with every additional increment of global warming

    As the planet warms, places will get hit more not just by extreme weather but by multiple climate disasters at once, 的 报告 说过.

    That’s like what’s now happening in the Western US, where heat waves, drought and wildfires compound the damage, Mearns said.

    今年, 37,803 fires have burned more than 3 million acres across the US, which is a major increase from last year’s fire season that saw 32,059 fires scorch a total of 2.1 百万英亩.

    Along with a surge in wildfires, much of the US is experience historic droughts that are draining rivers, lakes and reservoir to nearly bone-dry basins.

    Along with a surge in wildfires, much of the US is experience historic droughts that are draining rivers, lakes and reservoir to nearly bone-dry basins. Lake Powell, America's second largest reservoir, hit its lowest level last month

    Along with a surge in wildfires, much of the US is experience historic droughts that are draining rivers, lakes and reservoir to nearly bone-dry basins. Lake Powell, America’s second largest reservoir, hit its lowest level last month

    Lake Powell, America’s second largest reservoir, hit its lowest level last month since it was first filled fifty years ago amid a climate-fueled drought and increasing demand for water.

    The rate at which both Lake Powell and the nearby Lake Mead in NevadaAmerica’s largest reservoirhave drained this year has alarmed scientists and officials.

    Key findings from the UN’s new climate science report

    – It is ‘unequivocalthat human activity has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land – with widespread and rapid changes across the world.

    – Many of the changes are unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years, with the world warming at a rate unprecedented in at least 2,000 年份.

    – Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher than they have been for three million years and methane concentrations are higher than they have been for 800,000 年份, with rises in both greenhouse gases well above natural changes seen for hundreds of thousands of years.

    – Global average temperatures were nearly 2F (1.1C) higher in the last decade than in pre-industrial times, or the period 1850-1900, driven by emissions caused by human activities such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation.

    – Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region around the world, with stronger evidence of more frequent or intense heatwaves, heavy rain, droughts and tropical cyclones and the role humans play in driving the changes.

    – Humans are very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers, decline in sea ice, warming oceans and rising sea levels. The rate of sea level rise is speeding up.

    – Global surface temperatures will continue to increase until at least mid-century, and the world will reach or exceed 1.5C of warming over the next 20 年份.

    – Global warming of 2.7F and 3.6 F (1.5C and 2C) – limits countries have committed to in order to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change – will be exceeded in the 21st century unless deep reductions in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.

    – Continued warming will drive increases in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes, marine heatwaves, heavy rain, droughts in some regions, the proportion of intense tropical cyclones, and reductions in Arctic sea ice, snow cover and permafrost.

    – Every additional increment of warming causes larger changes in extremes, with every extra 0.5C temperature rises leading to clear increases in the intensity of heatwaves, heavy rain that can cause flooding, and droughts.

    – Under scenarios for the future with increasing carbon dioxide emissions, the ocean and land carbon sinks such as forests are projected to be less effective at slowing the accumulation of the greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.

    – Changes to oceans, sea levels and melting permafrost and glaciers are irreversible for decades, centuries or even millennia as a result of past and future warming.

    – Strong, rapid and sustained reductions in emissions of methane would help curb warming, and would also improve air quality

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    Warnings over the water levels at the key reservoirs come as over 95 percent of the Western US is experiencing drought conditions.

    The report also confirms that global sea level rise is accelerating.

    全球范围, sea levels rose about 8 inches on average between 1901 和 2018, although the water rose much more in some places, including in some cities on the East Coast and Gulf Coast of the US.

    ‘Around North America, relative sea level has increased over the last 3 decades at a rate 39 lower than global mean sea level (GMSL) in the subpolar North Atlantic and in the East Pacific, while it has increased at a rate higher 40 than GMSL in the subtropical North Atlantic,’ authors shared in the report.

    ‘Observations indicate that episodic coastal flooding is increasing along many coastlines in North America.

    ‘Shoreline retreat rates of around 1 m yr–1 41 have been observed during 42 1984–2015 along the sandy coasts of Northwestern North America and Northern Central America, while portions of the United States Gulf Coast have seen a retreat rate approaching 2.5 m yr–1 43.

    ‘Sandy shorelines 44 along Eastern North America and Western North America have remained more or less stable during 1984– 2014, but a shoreline progradation rate of around 0.5 m yr–1 45 has been observed in Northeastern North America.

    The report also notes heat wave that used to happen only once every 50 years now happens once a decade, and if the world warms another degree Celsius (1.8 华氏度), it will happen twice every seven years.

    The western US was covered in a heat dome throughout June that rose temperatures above 49C (121F) 并至少杀死 500 people across Oregon, Washington and up into Canada.

    Scientists say this kind of heatwave is a once in a 50 year type of event, but the report from the UN warns scorchers like this will happy every decade if the world warms another degree Celsius (1.8F).

    Report co-chair Valerie Masson-Delmotte, a climate scientist at France’s Laboratory of Climate and Environment Sciences at the University of Paris-Saclay, 在一份声明中说: ‘Our report shows that we need to be prepared for going into that level of warming in the coming decades.

    ‘But we can avoid further levels of warming by acting on greenhouse gas emissions.

    ‘There is also a way for the world to stay at the 2.7-degree threshold with extreme and quick emission cuts, but even then, temperatures would rise 2.7F (1.5C) in a decade and even beyond, before coming back down, said co-author Maisia Rojas Corrada, director of the Center for Climate and Resilience Research in Chile.

    ‘Anything we can do to limit, to slow down, is going to pay off,’ Tebaldi said. ‘And if we cannot get to 1.5 [2.7F], it’s probably going to be painful, but it’s better not to give up.

    In the report’s worst-case scenario, the world could be around 3.3 摄氏度 (5.9F) hotter than now by the end of the century.

    But that scenario looks increasingly unlikely, said report co-author and climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, climate change director of the Breakthrough Institute.

    ‘We are a lot less likely to get lucky and end up with less warming than we thought,’ Hausfather said.

    随着 Covid 在户外的传播大大减少, the odds of ending up in a much worse place than we expected if we do reduce our emissions are notably lower.

    The sweltering temperatures are being caused by a heat dome of static high-pressure hot air which traps the heat in one location

    The sweltering temperatures are being caused by a heat dome of static high-pressure hot air which traps the heat in one location

    The report said ultra-catastrophic disasters — commonly called 'tipping points,' like ice sheet collapses and the abrupt slowdown of ocean currents — are 'low likelihood' but cannot be ruled out. The much talked-about shutdown of Atlantic ocean currents, which would trigger massive weather shifts, is something that's unlikely to happen in this century, report co-author Bob Kopp of Rutgers University said

    The report said ultra-catastrophic disasters — commonly called ‘tipping points,’ like ice sheet collapses and the abrupt slowdown of ocean currents — are ‘low likelihoodbut cannot be ruled out. The much talked-about shutdown of Atlantic ocean currents, which would trigger massive weather shifts, is something that’s unlikely to happen in this century, report co-author Bob Kopp of Rutgers University said

    A ‘major advancein the understanding of how fast the world warms with each ton of carbon dioxide emitted allowed scientists to be far more precise in the scenarios in this report, Mason-Delmotte said.

    The report said ultra-catastrophic disasters — commonly called ‘tipping points,’ like ice sheet collapses and the abrupt slowdown of ocean currents — are ‘low likelihoodbut cannot be ruled out.

    The much talked-about shutdown of Atlantic ocean currents, which would trigger massive weather shifts, is something that’s unlikely to happen in this century, report co-author Bob Kopp of Rutgers University said.

    Separate work from the University of Arizona Department of Geosciences attributed an increase in sea levels from New York to Newfoundland to the slowing down by 30 来自的百分比 2009 至 2010, as well as unusual wind currents that pushed ocean waters towards the coast.

    If the ocean currents would come to a halt, winters in the US would become colder and stronger, and water would flow more inland on the east coast.

    Climate activist Greta Thunberg said the report ‘confirms what we already knowthat we are in an emergency.

    ‘We can still avoid the worst consequences, but not if we continue like today, and not without treating the crisis like a crisis,’ she wrote on Twitter.

    The UN’s assessment does not shy away from noting that climate change is because of humansdisregard for the planet in the last few centuries.

    Humans are ‘unequivocally’ 惹的祸

    UN scientists said humanity’s damaging impact on the climate was a ‘statement of fact’, adding that it is ‘unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, oceans and land’.

    The authors of the IPCC report considered scenarios where global temperatures increased by 2.7F (1.5C), 3.6F (2C) and 7.2F (4C)and the impact each one would have on mean temperatures and precipitation across Europe

    The authors of the IPCC report considered scenarios where global temperatures increased by 2.7F (1.5C), 3.6F (2C) and 7.2F (4C)and the impact each one would have on mean temperatures and precipitation across Europe

    The report also looked at how these scenarios would affect mean temperatures and precipitation levels in North America

    The report also looked at how these scenarios would affect mean temperatures and precipitation levels in North America

    Humans are very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers, decline in sea ice, warming oceans and rising sea levels, 报告说.

    It also found that human activity is already responsible for 1.98F (1.1C) of global warming since 1850, while temperatures will continue to increase until at least the middle of this century.

    What will happen if temperatures continue to increase?

    • Coastal regions and islands underwater

    Sea level rises are ‘irreversiblefor hundreds or perhaps thousands of years, the report warned. It ‘cannot be ruled outthat sea levels could rise by around 2m by the end of this century and 5m by 2150. This could lead to more flooding, the displacement of millions of people and a loss of land for food growing.

    • An ice-free Arctic

    The Arctic is likely to be ‘practically sea ice-freein September at least once before 2050, UN scientists said. This is causing animals such as polar bears to suffer because of their shrinking habitat.

    • Extreme weather commonplace

    It is ‘virtually certainthat heatwaves, flooding and droughts will become more frequent and intense across the world. Hot extremes have become more prevalent since the 1950s, while cold events have become less frequent and less severe.

    • Dramatic loss of sea-life

    The Earth’s oceans will continue to warm and become more acidic, killing coral reefs and harming infant cod, blue mussels, starfish and sea urchins in particular.

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    Scientists said the world will reach or exceed 2.7F (1.5C) of warming over the next 20 年份.

    Weather will become more extreme

    Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region around the world, the landmark report said, with stronger evidence of more frequent or intense heatwaves, heavy rain, droughts and tropical cyclones and the role humans play in driving the changes.

    Heatwaves, flooding and droughts will only become more frequent and intense, the UN scientists warned.

    Severe heatwaves that happened only once every 50 years are now happening roughly once a decade, while most land areas are seeing more rain or snowfall in a year and severe droughts are happening 1.7 times as often.

    Arctic summers may soon be free of ice

    The Arctic is likely to be ‘practically sea ice-freein September at least once before 2050, according to the IPCC’s most optimistic scenario.

    The region is the fastest-warming area of the globe — at least twice as fast as the global average.

    While Arctic sea ice levels vary throughout the year, the average lows during summer have been decreasing since the 1970s and are now at their lowest levels in 1,000 年份. This melting creates a feedback loop, with reflective ice giving way to darker water that absorbs solar radiation, causing even more warming.

    Sea level rises are ‘irreversible

    Scientists warned that a rise in sea levels approaching six feet by the end of this century ‘cannot be ruled out’, adding that these changes would be ‘irreversiblefor hundreds to thousands of years.

    Warming in the polar regions is not only melting sea ice but also causing thermal expansion, where the water expands as sea temperatures rise. Both of these phenomena are factors in rising sea levels.

    If they keep rising as fast as they are then coastal regions and islands could be flooded or left underwater, leading to the displacement of millions of people and the loss of land for food growing.

    The report ‘provides a strong sense of urgency to do even more,’ said Jane Lubchenco, the White House deputy science adviser.

    This graphic from the UN report shows scientists' prediction of future emissions including CO2, methane and nitrous oxide

    This graphic from the UN report shows scientistsprediction of future emissions including CO2, methane and nitrous oxide

    Human activity is already responsible for 1.1C of global warming since 1850, while temperatures will continue to increase until at least the middle of this century. The temperature changes from human influence, including greenhouse gas emissions, aerosols, land-use changes and aviation vapor trails are shown above

    Human activity is already responsible for 1.1C of global warming since 1850, while temperatures will continue to increase until at least the middle of this century. The temperature changes from human influence, including greenhouse gas emissions, aerosols, land-use changes and aviation vapor trails are shown above

    In a new move, scientists emphasized how cutting airborne levels of methane — a powerful but short-lived gas that has soared to record levels — could help curb short-term warming.

    Lots of methane the atmosphere comes from leaks of natural gas, a major power source.

    Livestock also produces large amounts of the gas, a good chunk of it in cattle burps.

    多于 100 countries have made informal pledges to achieve ‘net zerohuman-caused carbon dioxide emissions sometime around mid-century, which will be a key part of climate negotiations this fall in Scotland.

    As for the US, President Joe Biden promised to rejoin the Paris Agreement earlier this year and set a course for the United States to tackle the climate crisis at home and abroad, reaching net zero emissions economy-wide no later than 2050.

    The report said those commitments are essential.

    ‘It is still possible to forestall many of the most dire impacts,’ said IPCC Vice Chair Ko Barrett, senior climate adviser for the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    WHAT ARE THE KEY GOALS OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT?

    分析所有气候科学论文之间发表的论文:

    1) A long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 3.6F (2摄氏) above pre-industrial levels

    2) To aim to limit the increase to 2.7F (1.5摄氏), 将全球平均气温上升幅度控制在远低于工业化前水平 2°C 的长期目标

    3) 将全球平均气温上升幅度控制在远低于工业化前水平 2°C 的长期目标, recognizing that this will take longer for developing countries

    4) 将全球平均气温上升幅度控制在远低于工业化前水平 2°C 的长期目标

    资源: 将全球平均气温上升幅度控制在远低于工业化前水平 2°C 的长期目标

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