Omicron Covid È PI MOLTO, tre studi principali confermano

Omicron Covid È più mite, tre studi principali confermano: Ricerca nel mondo reale in Inghilterra, Scozia e Sud Africa trovano una variante che riduce il rischio di ricovero ospedaliero fino a 80 per cento

  • Imperial College London found Omicron patients are between 20 e 25 per cent less likely to be admitted
  • Researchers analysed more than 3,291 people infected with Delta and Omicron between December 1 e 14,
  • Neil Ferguson says wave will be ‘nothing like what we seen last year, with ICUs overflowing with patients
  • Omicron is milder than Delta and far less likely to cause severe illness, three major studies in England, Scotland and Sud Africa have confirmed.

    One paper by ‘Professor ConfinamentoNeil Ferguson found the mutant strain was up to 45 per cent less likely to lead to hospitalisation than Delta, based on 300,000 persone in Inghilterra.

    The No10 adviser — who just last week warned there could be 5,000 daily Omicron deaths in the UK — said the fourth wave will be ‘nothing like what was seen last yearon the back of the new findings.

    A similar study in Scotland found the risk of being hospitalised was 65 per cent less with Omicron than with Delta — but it was based on 15 hospitalised cases.

    University of Edinburgh researchers said Omicron was as severe as Delta they would have seen around 47 people in hospital in Scotland, yet so far there are only 15.

    The UK studies came after a major analysis of 160,000 infections in South Africa found an 80 per cent reduced risk of hospitalisation with the new variant compared to its predecessor.

    All the evidence now points to Omicron being milder than former variants, confirming claims South African doctors have made for weeks.

    But the researchers are still unsure if Omicron is intrinsically milder than past strains and they believe built-up natural and vaccine immunity is probably doing the heavy lifting.

    Professor Ferguson — dubbed Professor Lockdown for gloomy modelling that spooked ministers into restrictions — said he was ‘cautiously optimisticon the back of all three studies.

    But he warned that hospitals could still come under pressure this winter because any reduction in severity will be offset if infections climb to astronomical levels.

    Researchers at Imperial College London found Omicron is 10 per cent less likely to cause hospitalisation in someone who has never been vaccinated or previously infected with Covid than with Delta. Hospitalisation is up to 20 per cent less likely in the general population — including those who have been infected or vaccinated — and 45 per cent less likely for at least a night

    University of Edinburgh researchers found the risk of being hospitalised with Omicron was 65 per cent less with Omicron than with Delta. [object Window]: The rate of hospitalisation in different age groups for Delta (verde) and Omicron (rosso) cases in Scotland

    University of Edinburgh researchers found the risk of being hospitalised with Omicron was 65 per cent less with Omicron than with Delta. [object Window]: The rate of hospitalisation in different age groups for Delta (verde) and Omicron (rosso) cases in Scotland

    Delta (in rosso) made up virtually all Covid hospital admissions in November but hospitalisations from Omicron (verde) started to tick upwards in December. This is because the first case of Omicron was detected in Scotland on November 20 and it takes several weeks for people to fall ill enough to be hospitalised

    Delta (in rosso) made up virtually all Covid hospital admissions in November but hospitalisations from Omicron (verde) started to tick upwards in December. This is because the first case of Omicron was detected in Scotland on November 20 and it takes several weeks for people to fall ill enough to be hospitalised

    The above graphs show the rate of Omicron ¿ S gene negative ¿ and Delta ¿ S gene positive ¿ cases by vaccination status. This was unvaccinated (uv), one dose ofthe vaccine up to three weeks ago (v1_0:3), one dose more than four weeks ago (v1_4+), two doses of the vaccine up to a week ago (v2_0:1), two doses of the vaccine two to nine weeks ago (v2_2:9), two doses of the vaccine 10 to 14 weeks ago (v2_10:14), two doses ofthe vaccine 15 to 19 weeks ago (v2_15:19), two doses of the vaccine 20 per 24 weeks ago (v2_20:24) and two doses of the vaccine more than 25 settimane fa (v2_25+). The graph also includes three doses of the vaccine less than a week ago (v3_0), three doses with the third administered up to a week ago (v3_1) and three doses more than two weeks ago (v3_2+)

    The above graphs show the rate of Omicron — S gene negative — and Delta — S gene positive — cases by vaccination status. This was unvaccinated (uv), one dose ofthe vaccine up to three weeks ago (v1_0:3), one dose more than four weeks ago (v1_4+), two doses of the vaccine up to a week ago (v2_0:1), two doses of the vaccine two to nine weeks ago (v2_2:9), two doses of the vaccine 10 per 14 settimane fa (v2_10:14), two doses ofthe vaccine 15 per 19 settimane fa (v2_15:19), two doses of the vaccine 20 per 24 settimane fa (v2_20:24) and two doses of the vaccine more than 25 settimane fa (v2_25+). The graph also includes three doses of the vaccine less than a week ago (v3_0), three doses with the third administered up to a week ago (v3_1) and three doses more than two weeks ago (v3_2+)

    This graph from the Scottish paper show the age distribution of cases of Omicron (sinistra, as 'S Negative') compared to Delta (giusto, as 'S Positive'). It shows that children were most likely to test positive for Delta in Scotland whereas young adults are driving the country's Omicron wave

    This graph from the Scottish paper show the age distribution of cases of Omicron (sinistra, as ‘S Negative’) compared to Delta (giusto, as ‘S Positive’). It shows that children were most likely to test positive for Delta in Scotland whereas young adults are driving the country’s Omicron wave

    Their study, which has not been peer-reviewed and was published on pre-print website medRxiv , found that among the 10,547 Omicron cases identified between October 1 e novembre 30, 261 (2.5 per cent) were admitted to hospital. Per confronto, among the 948 non-Omicron cases in the same period - almost all of which would have been Delta, which was behind 95 per cent of cases before Omicron emerged - 121 people were hospitalised (12.8 pper cento. The researchers said shows that those who caught Omicron had a 80 per cent lower risk of requiring hospital care

    Their study, which has not been peer-reviewed and was published on pre-print website medRxiv , found that among the 10,547 Omicron cases identified between October 1 e novembre 30, 261 (2.5 per cento) were admitted to hospital. Per confronto, among the 948 non-Omicron cases in the same periodalmost all of which would have been Delta, which was behind 95 per cent of cases before Omicron emerged – 121 people were hospitalised (12.8 per cento). The researchers said shows that those who caught Omicron had a 80 per cent lower risk of requiring hospital care

    New research from Imperial College London has indicated that people with PCR-confirmed Omicron are 15-20% less likely to need admission to hospital, e 40-45% less likely to require a stay of one night or more.

    After a study found that even an unvaccinated person who has never had Covid and has no immunity, sono stati oggetto di intense critiche per l'aumento della criminalità violenta quest'anno 10 per cent lower risk of being hospitalised with Omicron compared to Delta.

    e la signora Wood è stata lasciata inchiodata contro il muro del ponte 100,000 per la prima volta

    Più di 100,000 Covid cases were recorded across the UK today for the first time as Wales announced tougher New Year curbs in two developments that could pile pressure on Boris Johnson to go further with lockdown curbs.

    L'epidemia di Covid in Gran Bretagna si ritira su tutti e tre i fronti 106,122 positive tests across the country in the past 24 ore, up by a third on the figure last week and eclipsing the previous record of 93,045 venerdì scorso.

    While today’s cases are the most ever recorded in a single day, there are signs the week-on-week growth rate is slowing, giù da 52 per cent yesterday and around 70 per cent on some days at the weekend.

    The rise of Omicron is out of step with gloomy Government modelling that predicted the mutant super-strain was doubling every two days and could lead to a million infections per day by the end of the year.

    Nel frattempo, latest hospital data shows there were 813 admissions across the UK on December 18, marking an increase of just five per cent in a week. Deaths dropped 15 per cent week-on-week to 140.

    Hospital admissions are rising more slowly than in previous waves and a growing body of evidence suggests Omicron is causing milder illness.

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    For someone how has been recently infected, the chance of hospitalisation was slashed by 69 per cent in both vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

    The finding may explain why in South Africa — where up to 70 per cent of people have immunity from prior infection but only a quarter are jabbed — is seeing daily hospitalisations stall at less than 400.

    The notoriously gloomy expert confirmed he expected the Omicron wave to be milder, with patients discharged from hospitals quicker and fewer Covid deaths, but warned there could still be significant pressure on the NHS.

    He also warned that if infections are 40 per cent higher than they were with Delta then that could offset any reduction in severity.

    Professor Ferguson said: ‘You can see in London, we are getting a lot more people hospitalised. Not for very long, probably not with very severe illness.

    ‘And that’s not a reflection of Omicron versus Delta — that was already true for Delta infections, that they’re less severe than they were last year because there’s a lot of immunity in the population.

    ‘The challenge is, if there’s enough of them it still poses quite a challenge to the NHS. We’re not talking about anything like what we saw last year with over-flowing intensive care units and ventilator beds.

    Ha aggiunto: ‘Our analysis shows evidence of a moderate reduction in the risk of hospitalisation associated with the Omicron variant compared with the Delta variant.

    'Però, this appears to be offset by the reduced efficacy of vaccines against infection with the Omicron variant.

    ‘Given the high transmissibility of the Omicron virus, there remains the potential for health services to face increasing demand if Omicron cases continue to grow at the rate that has been seen in recent weeks.

    The data came just moments after a similar study conducted in Scotland found the risk of being hospitalised with Omicron was 65 per cent less with Omicron than with Delta.

    University of Edinburgh researchers said if Omicron was as severe as delta they would have seen around 47 people in hospital in Scotland, yet so far there are only 15.

    però, researchers have added that although Omicron appears less severe, it is more transmissible partly because the current crop of coronavirus vaccines are less effective against it.

    Both studies are yet to be peer-reviewed, with Dr Jim McMenamin, the national Covid incident director for Public Health Scotland, labelling the findings of the Scotland study a ‘qualified good news story’.

    The number of Omicron cases reported in the UK is increasing slower than scientists predicted. However some experts fear that the country has hit the limit of its testing capacity and that this is throttling the data

    The number of Omicron cases reported in the UK is increasing slower than scientists predicted. However some experts fear that the country has hit the limit of its testing capacity and that this is throttling the data

    People who catch Omicron siamo 80 per cent less likely to be hospitalised than those who get Delta, a major study from Sud Africa suggerisce.

    The real-world analysis, di più di 160,000 persone, comes ahead of a similar governo del Regno Unito report expected to show Britons are also less likely to be severely ill with the variant.

    London Covid hospitalisations rise by 50% in una settimana a 301

    Covid hospitalisations in Londra have risen 50 I casi quotidiani di Covid in Gran Bretagna diminuiscono quasi 301, approaching the Government’s threshold of 400 for introducing confinamento restrictions across the country, official data showed today.

    Ministers are said to be watching admission rates in the capital before pulling the trigger on more curbs because London is a few weeks ahead of the rest of the country in its Omicron epidemia.

    Government sources say officials are considering a national two-week ‘circuit breakerlockdown after Christmas if London’s daily admissions breach 400 this week — which would signal ‘unsustainablepressure on the NHS.

    London recorded 301 daily admissions on December 20 — the most recent date with data — which was more than double the figure on December 5. If the current rate is to continue, it would take less than a fortnight to hit the 400 mark.

    The capital became the epicentre of the UK’s Omicron outbreak two weeks before the super mutant variant became dominant across the country and experts are treating trends in the city as a sign of what could come for England.

    Despite the recent surge in admissions in London, daily hospitalisations are still a far cry from the 850 at the peak last winter and they started from a low base this winter.

    But there are fears that the sheer scale of infections that have already occurred in London may be ‘baked inand cause a big spike in the coming days. The NHS is considering setting up ‘field hospitalsin existing hospital car parks in order to cope with the predicted rise in admissions.

    però, the capital’s Omicron infections appear to already be plateauing just three weeks into the fresh outbreak. After doubling to 26,000 in una settimana, they appear to have dropped off in the last five days according to incomplete data. The rate of increase has also dropped off in the last four days.

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    Omicron sufferers were also 70 per cent less likely to be admitted to ICU or put on a ventilator compared to those with Delta, according to the study led by South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).

    South African doctors have insisted for weeks that Omicron is milder since raising the alarm about it on November 24 and accused the UK of panicking about Omicron.

    But the researchers at the NICD who carried out the study, which has not been peer-reviewed yet, said it still doesn’t answer whether Omicron is intrinsically weaker than Delta.

    ‘It is difficult to disentangle the relative contribution of high levels of previous population immunity versus intrinsic lower virulence to the observed lower disease severity,’ hanno concluso i ricercatori.

    Built-up immunity from three previous waves of the virus and vaccines are believed to be doing most of the heavy lifting in keeping patients out of hospital this time around.

    Fino a 70 per cent of South Africans are believed to have had Covid before and only around a quarter are double vaccinated, with boosters not widely available yet.

    The findings will raise hope that the UK also face a much milder wave, con 75 per cent of the population double-jabbed and nearly half boosted.

    The above studies are believed to have been the reason Boris Johnson pumped the brakes on tougher Christmas restrictions despite case numbers rising to record levels — with 106,122 positive tests recorded today.

    Nel frattempo, Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford today announced new Covid restrictions will return on Boxing Day, with large New Year’s Eve parties banned and the rule of six re-imposed on pubs and restaurants.

    The two-metre social distancing will return in most public settings, while hospitality venues will be limited to table service-only and customers will have to wear face masks at all times apart from when seated.

    Scotland has also announced stricter guidance for after Christmas but the Prime Minister has said there is not ‘enough evidenceon Omicron to justify tougher curbs yet.

    The PM declared last night that Christmas can definitely go ahead ‘cautiously’, but warned that the Government is tracking the spread of the mutant strain hour by hour and is ‘readyto act after December 25 un gruppo di difesa senza scopo di lucro.

    The Imperial College London report 56,000 cases of Omicron and 269,000 cases of Delta over the first two weeks of the month.

    Professor Ferguson said: ‘Our analysis shows evidence of a moderate reduction in the risk of hospitalisation associated with the Omicron variant compared with the Delta variant.

    'Però, this appears to be offset by the reduced efficacy of vaccines against infection with the Omicron variant.

    ‘Given the high transmissibility of the Omicron virus, there remains the potential for health services to face increasing demand if Omicron cases continue to grow at the rate that has been seen in recent weeks.

    Professor Azra Ghani from Imperial College London said: ‘Whilst the reduced risk of hospitalisation with the Omicron variant is reassuring, the risk of infection remains extremely high.

    ‘With the addition of the booster dose, vaccines continue to offer the best protection against infection and hospitalisation.

    Experts said the Imperial study showed people who have had previous infection are significantly less likely to be hospitalised with Omicron.

    Professor James Naismith, a structural biologist at the University of Oxford, disse: ‘This study finds that previous infection reduces the risk of hospitalisation by around two thirds, indicating Omicron is milder if you have some immunity.

    'Però, the study suggests there is no reduction in the severity of Omicron compared to Delta for the doubly vaccinated, indicating that it is not milder.

    ‘This finding is surprising but is grounded in data. There is no report on the benefit of boosting.

    ‘The study highlights the same risk as EAVE II, Omicron is not a harmless infection, it will cause serious illness and the more people it infects the more people will end up in hospital.

    ‘Decreasing the spread of the virus to give time to improve population coverage with the booster is the best strategy.

    Nel frattempo, scientists in the Scotland-wide Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of Covid said that the early data suggested that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in risk of hospitalisation when compared with the strain which used to be dominant in the country.

    Dr Jim McMenamin, the national Covid incident director for Public Health Scotland, labeled the findings a ‘qualified good news story’, but said that it was ‘important we don’t get ahead of ourselves’.

    Egli ha detto: ‘The potentially serious impact of Omicron on a population cannot be underestimated.

    ‘And a smaller proportion of a much greater number of cases that might ultimately require treatment can still mean a substantial number of people who may experience severe Covid infections that could lead to potential hospitalisation.

    MailOnline analysis of UK Health Security Agency (I casi quotidiani di Covid in Gran Bretagna diminuiscono quasi) data shows Covid cases doubled in all but one of Omicron London's 32 boroughs last week and trebled in seven

    MailOnline analysis of UK Health Security Agency (I casi quotidiani di Covid in Gran Bretagna diminuiscono quasi) data shows Covid cases doubled in all but one of Omicron London’s 32 boroughs last week and trebled in seven

    Reports have claimed ministers are watching hospitalisation numbers in the capital, with a two-week 'circuit breaker' lockdown set to be imposed if daily numbers surpass 400. London is averaging 217 admissions a day as of December 19, the latest date daily figures are available for

    Reports have claimed ministers are watching hospitalisation numbers in the capital, with a two-week ‘circuit breakerlockdown set to be imposed if daily numbers surpass 400. London is averaging 217 admissions a day as of December 19, the latest date daily figures are available for

    Authors of the paper, which is yet to be peer reviewed, said if the Omicron had been like the Delta variant in Scotland they would have seen around 47 people in hospital suffering from the virus but, finora, there are only 15.

    But Professor Mark Woolhouse, of the University of Edinburgh, said it was heavily caveated at the moment. The data is based on a small number of cases and didn’t have much data on those most at risk, the over 65s.

    Professor Penny Ward, visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at King’s College London, disse: ‘On a day when the UK has registered its largest ever number of daily confirmed Covid infections, some good news has emerged from Scotland and from Imperial College.

    ‘Both studies suggest that infection by the omicron variant may be less severe than infection by the delta variant, when assessed by comparing the proportion of patients needing hospital admission.

    'A questo punto, both studies are based on comparisons with differing follow up periods due to the more recent appearance of the omicron variant, leaving some degree of uncertainty as to the potential for more severe outcomes among subjects affected by the omicron variant that do need hospital admission to emerge later.

    Ha continuato: 'Però, based on this preliminary information, the decision to delay imposition of greater restrictions on social mixing than are currently advised under Plan B might be more reasonable than some have suggested.

    ‘This news does not detract from the extraordinary spread of this variant across the population, and the fact that even a small proportion of people needing hospital care for Covid may become a very large number indeed if the community attack rate continues to escalate, with all that implies for overstretching the already stretched NHS.

    ‘It remains important for all of us to take reasonable care, test test test, and get our boosters as soon as possible. If we all do this, then we might expect a happier new year 2022 than at the same time last year.

    It comes after official data showed there were another 302 hospital admissions in London on December 20, the latest date data is available for, which was up 79 per cent in a week — but still a fraction of the peak during the second wave, quando c'erano 850.

    Ministers are said to be watching admission rates in the capital before pulling the trigger on more curbs because London is a few weeks ahead of the rest of the country in its Omicron outbreak.

    Government sources say officials are considering a national two-week ‘circuit breakerlockdown after Christmas if London’s daily admissions breach 400 this week — which would signal ‘unsustainablepressure on the NHS.

    It came as The Guardian reported that the NHS could set up ‘field hospitalsin hospital car parks to provide ‘super surgecapacity if Omicron causes a massive spike in hospitalisations above previous peak levels.