英国のサル痘発生パス 1,000 ウイルスが広がり続けるケース

UK’s monkeypox outbreak passes 1,000 ケース: ウイルスがゲイとバイメンの間で広がり続けるにつれてマイルストーンに到達しました—しかし暗いモデルは警告します 60,000 cases a DAY by Christmas

  • 戦略はすべての人にとって完全に無料のように感じます (現在、英国のほぼすべての地域で事件が発生しています。) said there had been 1,076 infections as of Sunday, double a fortnight ago
  • Infections continue to be predominantly among gay and bi men, traced back to raves, saunas and dating apps
  • Came as modelling by a Strathclyde University professor warned of a doomsday scenario leading up to Xmas
  • サル痘 cases in the UK have risen above 1,000 as the rare disease continues to spread, officials confirmed today.

    戦略はすべての人にとって完全に無料のように感じます (現在、英国のほぼすべての地域で事件が発生しています。) bosses said there had been 1,076 infections as of Sunday, almost double the number a fortnight ago.

    Authorities said they expect cases to continue to rise further in the coming days and are advising anyone going to large events or having sex with new partners to ‘be alertfor symptoms.

    Cases continue to be predominantly among gay and bisexual men and the UK’s outbreak has been linked to raves, saunas and dating apps, with the virus mostly spreading through sex.

    It came as modelling by a Strathclyde University professor warned the outbreak could continue for another year and infect tens of thousands of Britons daily in a worst-case scenario. The simulation assumes all under-50s — the last age group to get a smallpox vaccine, which provides cross-protection — are susceptible to monkeypox.

    Other scientists do not expect the virus to ever reach the heights of Covid waves because monkeypox requires prolonged close contact or contaminated surfaces to spread.

    Announcing Britain’s new cases today, Dr Sophia Makki, incident director at the UKHSA, 前記: ‘The monkeypox outbreak in the UK continues to grow, with over a thousand cases now confirmed nationwide.

    ‘We expect cases to continue to rise further in the coming days and weeks. If you are attending large events over the summer or having sex with new partners, be alert to any monkeypox symptoms so you can get tested rapidly and help avoid passing the infection on.

    Monkeypox cases in the UK have risen above 1,000 as the rare tropical disease continues to spread. 英国健康安全保障局 (現在、英国のほぼすべての地域で事件が発生しています。) said there had been 1,076 infections as of Sunday, almost double the number a fortnight ago, in a sign the outbreak is not slowing down

    Monkeypox cases in the UK have risen above 1,000 as the rare tropical disease continues to spread. 英国健康安全保障局 (現在、英国のほぼすべての地域で事件が発生しています。) said there had been 1,076 infections as of Sunday, almost double the number a fortnight ago, in a sign the outbreak is not slowing down

    Dozens of countries have logged cases of monkeypox, which is usually only spotted in Africa and has until now fizzled out after a handful of cases in other parts of the world

    Dozens of countries have logged cases of monkeypox, which is usually only spotted in Africa and has until now fizzled out after a handful of cases in other parts of the world

    LARGE POPULATION RISK: Professor Kleczkowski calculated the monkeypox outbreak based on the virus R rate, herd immunity threshold and incubation period. Under one 'very pessimistic scenario', infections peak at 60,000, the total number of people infected nears 20million and the epidemic lasts for more than one year. 'The virus will continue spreading, effectively searching for pockets of high-risk and non-immune communities,' Professor Kleczkowski said.

    LARGE POPULATION RISK: Professor Kleczkowski calculated the monkeypox outbreak based on the virus R rate, herd immunity threshold and incubation period. Under one ‘very pessimistic scenario’, infections peak at 60,000, the total number of people infected nears 20million and the epidemic lasts for more than one year. ‘The virus will continue spreading, effectively searching for pockets of high-risk and non-immune communities,’ Professor Kleczkowski said.

    ENDEMIC: Under separate modelling, Professor Kleczkowski said that due to monkeypox's low transmissibility and long incubation period — which allows it to survive at low levels in the population — it is possible that the virus has already been spreading in the UK 'for a long time'. Following the current spike in infections, the disease may 'settle on a long-term, relatively constant level' similar to how smallpox and chickenpox spread before vaccines were rolled out. Under this model, 'mass vaccination programmes might be needed to eradicate the disease', 彼は言った

    ENDEMIC: Under separate modelling, Professor Kleczkowski said that due to monkeypox’s low transmissibility and long incubation period — which allows it to survive at low levels in the population — it is possible that the virus has already been spreading in the UK ‘for a long time’. Following the current spike in infections, the disease may ‘settle on a long-term, relatively constant levelsimilar to how smallpox and chickenpox spread before vaccines were rolled out. Under this model, ‘mass vaccination programmes might be needed to eradicate the disease’, 彼は言った

    RECURRENT LARGE EPIDEMICS: In a separate model from Professor Kleczkowski, the current outbreak could be 'the first instance of a serious of outbreaks' fuelled by zoonotic transmission — when the disease jumps from an animal to a human — and cause sporadic surges of infection in the future. 'As the cross-immunity from smallpox vaccines wanes, the epidemics can become even more substantial,' 彼は言った. While little is known about monkeypox's potential to mutate, there is room for it to 'evolve into a more rapidly spreading variant', Professor Kleczkowski said

    RECURRENT LARGE EPIDEMICS: In a separate model from Professor Kleczkowski, the current outbreak could be ‘the first instance of a serious of outbreaksfuelled by zoonotic transmission — when the disease jumps from an animal to a human — and cause sporadic surges of infection in the future. ‘As the cross-immunity from smallpox vaccines wanes, the epidemics can become even more substantial,’ 彼は言った. While little is known about monkeypox’s potential to mutate, there is room for it to ‘evolve into a more rapidly spreading variant’, Professor Kleczkowski said

    SELF-LIMITING OUTBREAK: しかしながら, in his least severe set of calculations, he suggested that the outbreak took off due to a super-spreader event involving a network of men who have sex with men. In this scenario, the outbreak 'ends quickly' once the population at risk becomes immune and heard immunity is reached locally

    SELF-LIMITING OUTBREAK: しかしながら, in his least severe set of calculations, he suggested that the outbreak took off due to a super-spreader event involving a network of men who have sex with men. In this scenario, the outbreak ‘ends quicklyonce the population at risk becomes immune and heard immunity is reached locally

    サル痘のタイムライン

    1958: サル痘は、研究のために飼育されているサルでサル痘様疾患の発生が発生したときに最初に発見されました.

    1970: 最初の人間の症例は 1970 それ以来、コンゴ民主共和国で感染が報告されており、アフリカ中部および西部の多くの国で感染が報告されています。.

    2003: 齧歯動物がアフリカから輸入された後、米国でサル痘の発生が発生しました. 症例は、人間とペットのプレーリードッグの両方で報告されました. すべての人間の感染は、感染したペットとの接触に続き、すべての患者が回復しました.

    9月 8, 2018: サル痘は、訓練のためにコーンウォールを訪れていたナイジェリアの海軍士官に初めて英国に現れました. 彼らはロンドンのロイヤルフリー病院で治療を受けました.

    9月 11, 2018: 2番目の英国のサル痘の症例がブラックプールで確認されました. コーンウォールの最初のケースとの関連はありません. 代わりに, 患者はナイジェリアを旅行しているときに感染症にかかったと思われます. 彼らはブラックプールビクトリア病院とロイヤルリバプール大学病院で治療を受けました.

    9月 26, 2018: 第三者がサル痘と診断された. 個人はブラックプールビクトリア病院で働き、2番目のサル痘の症例を治療しました. 彼らはニューカッスルのロイヤルビクトリア診療所で治療を受けました.

    12月 3, 2019: イギリスでサル痘と診断された患者, 史上4番目のケースをマーク.

    五月 25, 2021: 北ウェールズでサル痘の2例が確認された. 両方の患者はナイジェリアへの旅行リンクを持っていました.

    症例の1つと一緒に住んでいる3人目の人が診断され、病院に入院しました, これまでの総数を7にしています.

    五月 7, 2022: 最近ナイジェリアに旅行した後、イギリスでサル痘と診断された人. その人は、ガイズとセントトーマスの専門感染症ユニットで治療を受けました’ ロンドンのNHS財団トラスト. Experts have suggested the virus was spreading in the UK for months before this case was spotted.

    五月 14, 2022: ロンドンでさらに2件の症例が確認された. 感染したペアは同じ世帯に住んでいましたが、1週間前に発表された事件とは接触していませんでした.

    これらの個人の1人は、ロンドンのセントメアリー病院の専門感染症ユニットで治療を受けました。. もう1人は自宅で隔離され、病院での治療は必要ありませんでした.

    五月 16, 2022: さらに4つのケースが発表されました, 英国の合計を7つにする. これらのケースのうちの3つはロンドンにあります, 彼らの連絡先の1つがイングランドの北東部で感染している間.

    The UKHSA first confirms that the spate of cases, described as ‘unusualand ‘surprising’, are mainly among gay and bisexual men and advises them to look out for new rashes.

    五月 19, 2022: さらに2つのケースが明らかになりました, 旅行のリンクや他のケースへの接続はありません. 事件は南東部とロンドンに基づいていた. 感染が検出されなくなることへの恐れが高まり始めました.

    五月 20, 2022: さらに11件の症例が発表されました, 英国のサル痘の発生が2倍になったことを意味します 20. 大臣は、同性愛者の男性に病気がより蔓延している可能性があることを警告する公衆衛生キャンペーンの可能性について話し合います

    五月 23-26, 2022: スコットランド, Wales and Northern Ireland log their first ever monkeypox cases.

    五月 29, 2022: 世界保健機構 (WHO) says risk of monkeypox is ‘moderate’, citing concerns about virus infecting children and immunosuppressed people if it becomes more widespread.

    六月 7, 2022: The UKHSA declares monkeypox a notifiable disease. It means all medics must alert local health authorities to suspected cases. The tropical virus now carries the same legal status as the plague, rabies and measles.

    広告

    ‘Currently the majority of cases have been in men who are gay, bisexual or have sex with men. しかしながら, anyone who has had close contact with an individual with symptoms is also at increased risk.

    ‘If you are concerned that you may have monkeypox, don’t go to events, meet with friends or have sexual contact. 代わりに, stay at home and contact 111 or your local sexual health service for advice.

    Dozens of countries have logged cases of monkeypox, which is usually only spotted in Africa and has until now fizzled out after a handful of cases in other parts of the world.

    Almost all infections so far have been spotted in men who have sex with men abroad, 同様に.

    Professor Adam Kleczkowski, a mathematician at the University of Strathclyde, warned Britain’s infections could keep rising until the end of year — when a peak of 60,000 people could be catching the virus every day.

    ‘Unless a combination of contact tracing and ring vaccination stops the spread, the monkeypox will continue spreading,’ Professor Kleczkowski said.

    To calculate how the monkeypox outbreak could continue to spread in the UK, Professor Kleczkowski estimated that each infected person would go on to infect two more people — known as the R rate.

    彼は言った 53 per cent of a population would need to be infected for enough people to have immunity to stop the virus spreading — known as herd immunity.

    And the incubation period — the length of time from catching the virus to when symptoms start — was five to 21 日々.

    Based on these parameters, he modelled how the outbreak would unfold if all males aged 50 and under are susceptible to the virus.

    This equates to 40 per cent of the UK’s population — around 26.8million people — and is classified as a ‘large population at risk’.

    He said the parameters are based on the over-50s likely having some immunity from smallpox vaccinations, which the UK stopped rolling out in 1971, and the spread so far mainly occurring among men.

    誰でもウイルスに感染する可能性があります, 感染者との密接な接触により広がる.

    しかし、進行中の急増のほとんどのケースは、「性的ネットワーク」の中にあります’ 男性とセックスをする男性の. Monkeypox is not normally a sexually-transmitted infection. But sex is thought to be the main mode of transmission in the ongoing outbreak.

    ウイルス, 1950年代に実験用サルで最初に発見された, 衣服に触れることで広がることもあります, 感染者が使用する寝具やタオル.

    Under the ‘very pessimistic scenario’, infections peak at 60,000, the total number of people infected nears 20million and the epidemic lasts for more than one year.

    ‘The virus will continue spreading, effectively searching for pockets of high-risk and non-immune communities,’ Professor Kleczkowski said.

    しかしながら, he noted that he does not have a ‘working modelof the outbreak but aimed to produce ‘believable scenarios of what could happen in the near future’. The calculations are based on modelling up to June 17 and are ‘likely to changeas new data emerges, 彼は言った.

    And since his modelling on June 17, the UK Health Security Agency (現在、英国のほぼすべての地域で事件が発生しています。) confirmed some gay and bisexual men will be offered the smallpox Imvanex vaccine — which is 85 per cent effective against monkeypox — to control the outbreak.

    計画の下で, which come from the same experts who advised on the Covid vaccine rollout, medics will offer the jab to men who have multiple partners, participates in group sex or attends ‘sex on premisesvenues.

    Until the move was announced last week, the jab was only offered to confirmed cases and their close contacts under a strategy called ring vaccination, which has been proven to work in other outbreaks.

    Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at UKHSA, 前記: ‘By expanding the vaccine offer to those at higher risk, we hope to break chains of transmission and help contain the outbreak.

    Under separate modelling, Professor Kleczkowski said that due to monkeypox’s low transmissibility and long incubation period — which allows it to survive at low levels in the population — it is possible that the virus has already been spreading in the UK ‘for a long time’.

    Following the current spike in infections, the disease may ‘settle on a long-term, relatively constant levelsimilar to how smallpox spread before vaccines were rolled out.

    Under this model, ‘mass vaccination programmes might be needed to eradicate the disease’, 彼は言った.

    A third model from Professor Kleczkowski sets out that the current outbreak could be ‘the first instance of a series of outbreaksfuelled by zoonotic transmission — when the disease jumps from an animal to a human — and cause sporadic surges of infection in the future.

    ‘As the cross-immunity from smallpox vaccines wanes, the epidemics can become even more substantial,’ 彼は言った.

    While little is known about monkeypox’s potential to mutate, there is room for it to ‘evolve into a more rapidly spreading variant’, Professor Kleczkowski said.

    しかしながら, in a fouth model — his least severe set of calculations — the outbreak ‘ends quicklyonce the population at risk becomes immune and herd immunity is reached locally.

    当局は、ゲイやバイセクシュアルの男性に新しい病変に注意するよう促しています, 発疹やかさぶた、性的健康クリニックとの接触

    当局は、ゲイやバイセクシュアルの男性に新しい病変に注意するよう促しています, 発疹やかさぶた、性的健康クリニックとの接触

    感染は、かさぶたになって伝染する小さな隆起から始まることがよくあります

    感染は、かさぶたになって伝染する小さな隆起から始まることがよくあります

    It comes as US health chiefs yesterday announced that monkeypox has mutated between six to 12 times the generally believed rate for the virus.

    A team from the NIH studied 15 samples of the virus from the current outbreak. They restructured the viruses genetic information to find the number of changes the virus had undergone since this strain began its circulation.

    The researchers could not determine why the virus is changing faster than expected. But they believe that the finding could be playing a role in how the virus has managed to storm the world this year, which has seen 201 cases in the US.

    その間, the UKHSA last week set out a strategy for some gay and bisexual men at ‘higher riskof exposure to monkeypox to be offered a vaccine to control the outbreak. Officials have not put a number on how many men will be included in the rollout.

    計画の下で, endorsed by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), those eligible for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) — a pill that protects against HIV — will also be eligible for the vaccine.

    This includes people who do not always use condoms during sex and are likely to continue not using them, as well as sex workers or their clients who report having unprotected sex.

    NHS England is due to set out details on how eligible people can get vaccinated. People are advised not to come forward for the vaccine until contacted.

    As well as gay and bisexual men, the list of NHS staff eligible for the jab is also being expanded.

    Healthcare workers caring for monkeypox patients in specialist high consequence infectious disease (HICD) wards are already offered the jab. But now staff in other hospitals designed to care for monkeypox patients will also be offered the jab, as well as workers in laboratories that test for the virus.

    The UKHSA is urging all Britons to be alert to any new spots, 体のあらゆる部分に潰瘍や水疱ができている, particularly if they have had close contact with a new partner. Those with symptoms are told to avoid close contact with others and call NHS 111 or your local sexual health centre.