Vaccines expert backs PM's Covid plans as hospital admissions fall

‘Mass deaths and hospitalisations are now history’: Vaccines expert backs PM’s light-touch Covid measures as hospital admissions fall to half of level last Christmas despite record-breaking Omicron infection surge

  • Professor Sir John Bell said the public had been ‘pretty responsibleso far as he said decision was ‘fine
  • Oxford don said ‘horrific scenesof overwhelmed NHS ‘is now history in my viewas he backed PM
  • Despite surge in Omicron variant cases, figures on hospital admissions down 50% 在十二月 2020
  • Stats reveal 842 Covid patients in ICU on ventilatorsthe lowest in two months
  • A leading vaccines expert backed 鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)‘s refusal to toughen England’s Covid restrictions, saying that mass deaths and hospitalisations from the deadly disease are ‘history’.

    Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University and a member of the Vaccines Taskforce, said the public had been ‘pretty responsiblein its response to the spread of the 奥米克戎 变体.

    It came as new figures showed the number of people in hospital with Covid in England is less than half the same time last year – despite cases being three times higher.

    ‘The health minister has taken advice and looked at the data. I think his judgment where we should go in the next few days is probably fine,’ Sir John told the 英国广播公司 无线电 4 今天节目.

    ‘There are a lot of people who are aware that we are in the face of this large wave of disease. The behaviour of people in the UK, in England in particular, has been pretty responsible in terms of trying not to go out and spending a lot of time exposing yourself to the virus.

    他加了: ‘The horrific scenes that we saw a year agointensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurelythat is now history in my view and I think we should be reassured that that’s likely to continue.

    约翰逊先生, who is at his Chequers country retreat, left it to Health Secretary Sajid Javid to face the cameras to announce the decision, although he later tweeted advice to Brits to exercise caution at the new year.

    His decision last night not to follow the lead of the other home nations in bringing in harsher Covid restrictions ahead of the new year has also been welcomed by Tory MPs who have been at odds with the PM.

    He faced a rebellion by more than 100 before Christmas as he brought in new mask-wearing rules and Covid checks for nightspots.

    Tory Mark Francois told GB News: ‘It’s remarkable how a backbench rebellion of 101 MPs focuses minds, 是不是? But let’s not be churlish, this is the right decision, well done Prime Minister.

    ‘We are asking people to use their common sensewe’re being conservatives. We’re trusting in the good sense of the British people.

    Bassetlaw MP Brendan Clarke-Smith added: ‘It’s about trusting people to make their own decisions about their lives and to use their common sense.

    它来了:

    • English regions bordering Scotland and Wales braced themselves for a New Year invasion after crackdowns on hospitality by Nicola Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford left England as the only country free to party.
    • Britain was urged to cut its Covid quarantine period to just five days, bringing its isolation rules in line with the US
    • Boris Johnson’s decision to hold his nerve and leave England to go it alone by refusing to cancel New Year’s Eve was criticised by gloomy experts
    • Official figures reveal dozens of pregnant women and new mothers are fighting for their lives against Covid in intensive care units
    Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University and a member of the Vaccines Taskforce, said the public had been 'pretty responsible' in its response to the spread of the Omicron variant.

    Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University and a member of the Vaccines Taskforce, said the public had been ‘pretty responsiblein its response to the spread of the Omicron variant.

    The most up-to-date figures reveal there were 842 Covid patients in intensive care on ventilators – the lowest level in two months

    The most up-to-date figures reveal there were 842 Covid patients in intensive care on ventilators – the lowest level in two months

    约翰逊先生, who is at his Chequers country retreat, left it to Health Secretary Sajid Javid to face the cameras to announce the decision, although he later tweeted advice to Brits to exercise caution at the new year

    约翰逊先生, who is at his Chequers country retreat, left it to Health Secretary Sajid Javid to face the cameras to announce the decision, although he later tweeted advice to Brits to exercise caution at the new year

    UK Government statistics show how the number of Covid tests being conducted has reached 1.5m a day, with the number of swabs carried out having increased massively since Omicron first emerged

    UK Government statistics show how the number of Covid tests being conducted has reached 1.5m a day, with the number of swabs carried out having increased massively since Omicron first emerged

    It’s Bank Hell-iday in fun-free Scotland and Wales

    City centres in Scotland and Wales have been pictured desolate and lifeless amid the introduction of new Covid restrictions on hospitalityall while revellers let their hair down in England after Sajid Javid confirmed no new rules would be put in place before New Year’s Eve celebrations.

    Nightclubs were closed in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland under new restrictions on Monday, while the rule of six and social distancing have been reintroduced for pubs and restaurants.

    It leaves England as the only part of the UK where party-goers will be able to celebrate New Year’s Eve without restrictions after Boris Johnson opted to heed the pleas of hospitality bosses and resist fresh Covid curbs.

    First Ministers Nicola Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford were also today accused of ‘jumping the gunand ‘devastating the hospitality industryby bringing in tougher restrictions.

    And on the first day of the new rules on Bank Holiday Monday, traditionally busy streets in Cardiff, 莎拉船员, Edinburgh and Glasgow were pictured arid and glum.

    In England, conversely, alcohol-fuelled crowds in London and Leeds remained in the festive spiritbraving the wet weather on Bank Holiday Monday to make the most of looser hospitality restrictions.

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    However other scientists signalled their disagreement with Sir John over the laissez faire rules.

    University of Brighton virologist Dr Sarah Pitt called for ‘a few measuresto curb the spread of Omicron.

    The microbiology lecturer told LBC the ‘seriously infectious virusis ‘putting some people very seriously in hospital, and some people are dying’.

    ‘I know personally more people who’ve been off sick with Covid in the last month than the whole of the pandemic put together,’ 她说.

    ‘So although there is a balance between the economy and health, they’re not mutually exclusiveit’s not one or the other.

    Nightclubs were closed in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland under new rules yesterday, with social distancing and the rule of six reintroduced for pubs and restaurants.

    New Covid curbs on hospitality from devolved governments have scuppered plans for December 31 and sparked fury from businesses.

    In a further sign that the 奥米克戎 variant appears to result in less severe disease, 曾经有 8,474 patients in hospital with Covid yesterday compared with 19,277 on the same day last year.

    It represents a day-on-day increase of nearly 1,000 and is the highest since March 5. But health bosses say there have been no reports of large numbers of patients requiring ventilators like during last winter’s peak.

    The most up-to-date figures reveal there were 842 Covid patients in intensive care on ventilators – the lowest level in two months.

    Environment Secretary George Eustice said the Government is keeping the level of Covid hospital admissions under ‘very close reviewafter ministers decided there would be no new restrictions in England before the new year.

    Mr Eustice acknowledged that infection rates from the new Omicron variant were rising but said there was evidence it was not resulting in the same level of hospital admissions as previous waves.

    ‘There is early encouragement from what we know in South Africa that you have fewer hospitalisations and that the number of days that they stay in hospital if they do go into hospital is also lower than in previous variants,’ 白俄罗斯东南部雷奇察附近的大部分设备和部队住房已经离开,下落不明 4 今天节目.

    ‘At the moment we don’t think that the evidence supports any more interventions beyond what we have done.

    UK faces calls to slash Covid isolation to just FIVE days

    Britain was today urged to cut its Covid quarantine period to just five days, bringing its isolation rules in line with the US.

    American officials last night scrapped an order requiring the infected to self-isolate for 10 天. 代替, they can leave home at the half-way point, as long as they have no symptoms and can wear a mask around people for another five days.

    Bosses at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) insisted the decision was ‘motivated by scienceand to keep ‘society functioning’.

    Leading experts today called for UK to follow suit especially in the face of Omicron, which has wreaked havoc on businesses throughout the Christmas period by forcing hundreds of thousands to stay at home.

    Union bosses have warned the ultra-transmissible variant’s rapid spread has left the NHS and other public sectors in a ‘perilous state’.

    Ministers have already squeezed the isolation period to seven days, providing Covid sufferers test negative twice at the end of their week of quarantine.

    But Sir John Bell, an immunologist who has advised the Government on Covid, said Britain could go even further and replicate the US by relying on lateral flow tests. He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme the swabs are ‘quite a good way of marking who is infectious and who isn’t’.

    And Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert from the University of East Anglia, said eventually Covid-infected people need to be allowed to ‘go about their normal livesas they would with a cold.

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    ‘But obviously we have got to keep it under very close review, because if it is the case that we started to see a big increase in hospitalisations then we would need to act further.

    保罗亨特, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said Covid will eventually be regarded as a cause of the common cold and will not warrant the reporting of daily case numbers.

    他告诉英国广播公司早餐: ‘Covid is only one virus of a family of coronaviruses, and the other coronaviruses throw off new variants typically every year or so, and that’s almost certainly what’s going to happen with Covidit will become effectively just another cause of the common cold.

    ‘We’re not going to be doing daily reporting on cases of the different causes of the common cold going forward, of which Covid is one.

    ‘So personally, I think it would be unlikely that we are going to do anything like that whilst we’re still coping with Omicron, but once we’re past Easter, 也许, then maybe we should start to look at scaling back, depending on, 当然, what the disease is at that time.

    Covid case numbers – which were updated for the first time since Christmas Eve – reveal 98,515 people in England tested positive yesterday.

    This is nearly four times higher than the 25,619 people who tested positive on the same day last year and is a considerable decrease on the 113,628 cases reported in England on Christmas Day.

    It is also lower than the 103,558 cases reported on Boxing Day. The promising figures highlight the vaccine’s protective effects against severe illness, as well as the mounting evidence that Omicron is a milder strain.

    进一步 143 people in England died after testing positive for Covid yesterday – down 42 per cent on the 246 people who were reported to have died the same day last year.

    And yesterday’s figure could be skewed by a recording lag, which saw no fatalities registered on Christmas Day and just three on Boxing Day.

    Meanwhile data for London – which No10 has been watching closely – reveals there were 364 Covid hospital admissions across the capital on Christmas Day.

    While this was a rise on the 278 hospitalisations reported on Christmas Eve, it is still lower than the 400 admissions per day thought to be the Government’s trigger point for imposing new restrictions.

    一些 351 hospital workers at Great Ormond Street Hospital Trust were ill or isolating due to Covid on December 19, according to NHS England data, 相比 70 前一周. This made up around 6.13 per cent of the trust’s entire workforce, statistics suggest. MailOnline’s graphic shows the 10 trusts in London with the greatest proportion of staff off because of Covid on December 19

    一些 338 hospital workers at Barts Health trust were ill or isolating due to Covid on December 19, according to NHS England data, compared to 83 two weeks earlier. Guy's and St Thomas' Trust had the highest Covid staff absence numbers in London, 与 515 workers at home on December 19, c相比179 two weeks earlier on December 5 (188 增加百分之). King's College Hospital trust saw 505 Covid-related absences on December 19, followed by Imperial College Healthcare trust (365), Great Ormond Street Hospital trust (351) and St George's University Hospital trust (206)

    一些 338 hospital workers at Barts Health trust were ill or isolating due to Covid on December 19, according to NHS England data, 相比 83 two weeks earlier. 盖伊和圣托马斯’ Trust had the highest Covid staff absence numbers in London, 与 515 workers at home on December 19, 相比 179 two weeks earlier on December 5 (188 增加百分之). King’s College Hospital trust saw 505 Covid-related absences on December 19, followed by Imperial College Healthcare trust (365), Great Ormond Street Hospital trust (351) and St George’s University Hospital trust (206)

    NHS England data shows staff absences in London due to Covid have increased from 1,100 至 3,874 over in the two weeks to December 19. It means the virus now makes up around 43 per cent of NHS daily absences in London compared to just 18 per cent before Omicron spiralled out of control

    NHS England data shows staff absences in London due to Covid have increased from 1,100 至 3,874 over in the two weeks to December 19. It means the virus now makes up around 43 per cent of NHS daily absences in London compared to just 18 per cent before Omicron spiralled out of control

    Official data shows the average number of daily Covid admissions rose 62 per cent week-on-week in the seven days up to December 22 在伦敦, while they jumped 47 per cent in the North West and 39 per cent in the East. Hospitalisations are also on the rise in the Midlands, where they jumped 36 per cent, and the North East and Yorkshire (31 per cent) and the South East (10 百分). The South West is the only part of the country where Covid admissions are falling, with the number seeking NHS care falling by four per cent

    Official data shows the average number of daily Covid admissions rose 62 per cent week-on-week in the seven days up to December 22 在伦敦, while they jumped 47 per cent in the North West and 39 per cent in the East. Hospitalisations are also on the rise in the Midlands, where they jumped 36 百分, and the North East and Yorkshire (31 百分) and the South East (10 百分). The South West is the only part of the country where Covid admissions are falling, with the number seeking NHS care falling by four per cent

    Reports have claimed ministers are watching hospitalisation numbers in the capital, with a two-week 'circuit breaker' lockdown set to be imposed if daily numbers surpass 400

    Reports have claimed ministers are watching hospitalisation numbers in the capital, with a two-week ‘circuit breakerlockdown set to be imposed if daily numbers surpass 400

    Prof Lockdown: I’ve made mistakes

    Professor Neil Ferguson said he has become ‘something of a Marmite figureand admitted he had ‘made mistakesand ‘oversimplified things’.

    But the epidemiologist, whose initial modelling helped shape Britain’s Covid response, said the science throughout the crisis ‘had basically been right’.

    This month he said up to 5,000 deaths a day could be caused by the Omicron variant this winter. Earlier this year he wrongly suggested there could be 100,000 infections a day over summer.

    The scientist was nicknamed Professor Lockdown for his role in producing the modelling that led to the first lockdown.

    Speaking to Radio 4’s Today programme he said: ‘I suppose I didn’t anticipate becoming the public figure I suppose I now am, something of a Marmite figure.

    ‘I certainly have made mistakes in communication and oversimplified things from time to time.

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    昨晚, the UK Health Security Agency (一周后,随着英国的第四波浪潮继续以失败告终英国卫生安全局) said there had been 45,307 additional confirmed cases of the Omicron variant reported across the UK.

    This brings the total confirmed cases of the variant in the UK to 159,932, but does not include any new information for Scotland and Northern Ireland which have not reported data since December 23.

    The number of deaths in England of people with the Omicron variant has risen to 39, while hospital admissions for people with confirmed or suspected Omicron rose to 407.

    Health bosses said that Covid admissions to hospitals were not rising ‘precipitately sobut warned that it is still ‘far too earlyto dismiss concerns.

    克里斯·霍普森, NHS Providers chief executive, 说过: ‘Trust leaders are watching their current hospital admissions data very closely.

    ‘Talking to chief executives this morning, the sense is that admissions are rising but not precipitately so. What’s particularly interesting is how many chief executives are talking about the number of asymptomatic patients being admitted to hospital for other reasons and then testing positive for Covid.

    ‘Trusts are not, 在这一刻, reporting large numbers of patients with Covid type respiratory problems needing critical care or massively increased use of oxygen, both of which we saw in January’s Delta variant peak.

    ‘We should therefore be cautious about over interpreting current Covid admission data.

    He added that trusts are ‘preparing for the worst and hoping for the best’.

    Clampdown now could have been catastrophic

    Commentary by Prof Philip Thomas

    Common sense has prevailed, 最起码到现在. Faced with a blizzard of dire predictions and scarifying statistics, Boris Johnson and the Cabinet have held their nerve.

    No new Covid restrictions will be introduced before the New Year.

    Health Secretary Sajid Javid has sensibly urged people not to throw caution to the wind when enjoying parties on December 31 – but in England at least, parties are permitted.

    That is immensely important. Another clampdown could have been catastrophic for society, the economy and for general mental health.

    Empty tables at a bar in Concert Square on Boxing Day in Liverpool's city centre. Downing Street is understood to be leaning towards new guidance urging people in England to be careful and limit contacts – rather than imposing new legally-binding restrictions

    Empty tables at a bar in Concert Square on Boxing Day in Liverpool’s city centre. Downing Street is understood to be leaning towards new guidance urging people in England to be careful and limit contacts – rather than imposing new legally-binding restrictions

    Chief Medical Officer for England, 与人们分享国王十字街拥挤奴才的模因 (对) and Chief Scientific Adviser, Patrick Vallance earlier this year

    Chief Medical Officer for England, 与人们分享国王十字街拥挤奴才的模因 (对) and Chief Scientific Adviser, Patrick Vallance earlier this year

    It would also have been based on a fundamental misunderstanding of statistics. When we focus on the worst case scenarios for the current wave, the situation might appear bleak.

    Professor Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London has warned of 10,000 hospital admissions a day. The reality is far from that – in fact, yesterday’s NHS figures show there were fewer than 10,000 Covid patients in hospital in the whole of England. The actual total was 8,474.

    It is never safe to base policy decisions on worst case scenarios.

    In statistical models, the most pessimistic forecasts will be an extremely poor predictor of reality. Because of the spread of probable outcomes, we can be 97 per cent confident that whatever happens will be better than the worst prediction. That is not wishful thinking. It’s mathematics.

    Some gloom-mongers, including a number who sit on the Government’s Sage committee, believe it’s always safer to plan for the very worst.

    Tighter coronavirus restrictions were introduced in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland today as the nation's leaders try to halt the spread of the Omicron variant. 图为: Shoppers take to Oxford Street for the Boxing Day sales

    Tighter coronavirus restrictions were introduced in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland today as the nation’s leaders try to halt the spread of the Omicron variant. 图为: Shoppers take to Oxford Street for the Boxing Day sales

    But that strategy can only work if the precautions are relatively painless. This is not the case with Covid restrictions, which have closed down society and the economy.

    Our gross domestic product has still not recovered to where it was two years ago, before Covid struck. Without a strong economic rebound, more people are likely to be killed by the financial consequences of lockdown restrictions than ever died with Covid.

    The risk assessment method I have been developing at the University of Bristol, dubbed Judgment-value, proves the economy has to improve continuously if we and our children are to live healthier and longer lives.

    已经, the cost of earlier lockdowns is mounting. We are seeing a backlog of NHS treatments for life-threatening diseases, as well as increased domestic abuse and disruptions to education. We cannot afford to exacerbate these problems.

    It is all too easy to focus on those bleak ‘worst case scenariosand ignore more upbeat news. 被认为是伦敦最合格的单身汉之一, the UK Health Security Agency revealed England was experiencing between 50 和 70 per cent fewer hospitalisations with Omicron than it had with Delta.

    There was further good news in the weekend’s results released yesterday, with hospitalisations showing little increase. 在伦敦, admissions on Christmas Day were lower than two days earlier at 364, 从下 390.

    Some people might have been concerned to hear just before Christmas that the number of people with an active infection in England rose to over 1.5 million in mid-December.

    But this was expected. Thanks to the number-crunching power of Bristol’s Predictor Corrector Coronavirus Filter (PCCF), that’s close to the figure I predicted in the Daily Mail.

    The total number of active infections may well exceed three million at the height of the wave, according to the PCCF, and we may see the daily number admitted to hospital peaking at around 3,000 在英国.

    But that’s well below the 4,130 we saw at the peak in January – and daily deaths should stay well below what we saw in January too.

    Philip Thomas is Visiting Academic Professor at the University of Bristol